The Forecasting Gap: Why Modern Tools Haven’t Fully Replaced Excel

Setting the Stage

Forecasting is one of the most talked-about capabilities in finance tech. “Our platform gives you predictive forecasts.” “Automated, AI-driven,” etc. Yet, in far too many PE boardrooms, when the tough questions hit, CFOs still ask to open Excel.

While AI predictive insights are great, they cannot answer the question of “can we double click into these assumptions.”

The Promise of SaaS Forecasting

SaaS vendors promise a lot:

• Automation (pulling data from different ERPs, banks)
• Advanced modeling, including ML/AI components
• Faster refreshes, dashboards, scenario simulations
• Less manual work, more strategic thinking

But few tools deliver in ways that let CFOs feel fully confident and let them understand the drivers underneath the numbers.

Where Forecasting Solutions have previously fell Short

1. Transparency of assumptions is weak.
   Often you see predictive inflow, but not how those numbers were built. What is the “seasonality adjustment”? How was historical volatility baked in? Without clarity, those forecasts are difficult to defend.
2. AI/ML models seen as black boxes.
   Many CFOs distrust models whose inner logic isn’t visible. They’d rather rely on something they can show, tweak, and explain.
3. Disconnect between promise and real-world change.
   Even when companies use TMS Systems, the forecast that hits the boardroom often undergoes heavy tweaking or is remade in Excel to ensure confidence.
4. Solutions don’t consider all inputs
   TMS Systems have great insights into bank history, but do not use drivers like AR, AP, PnL, and instead create high-level projections on inflows and outflows.

Why Excel Still Rules

• Familiarity & control. CFOs and their teams know how it works. They built their models, know how to adjust them, and trust their vulnerabilities.
• Transparency. Every formula, every assumption is visible. Want to show how you got from last month’s revenues to next month’s cash inflow drop? It’s there.
• Flexibility. Need a quick “what-if” (What if revenue is 10% lower? What if payables shift?), you can build it in seconds in Excel.
• Defensibility. Board members want to see not just the number, but the reasoning. Excel’s openness allows CFOs to walk through every cell if needed.

Data & Trends to Know

• Forecasts are weakening. A CFO.com / CFO Alliance survey (April 2025) showed that 54% of emerging or mid-market CFOs say their 2025 forecasts are worsening under policy and economic uncertainty. CFO
• Trust in data is fragile. BlackLine found that about 37% of CFOs do not completely trust their organization’s financial data; almost 98% do not have full confidence in visibility over cash flow. PR Newswire

These statistics don’t just demonstrate risk—they show real pressure in the room.

What CFOs Need in Forecasting Tools

To fully replace Excel at the boardroom level, forecasting tools must deliver:

• Clear, traceable assumptions. So you can show what drives each number.
• Real-time or near real-time data feed. AR, AP, bank balances, receivables—all data must be fresh.
• Scenario modeling & “what-if” flexibility. Instant, defensible pivots.
• User control & visibility. Not opaque algorithms, but adjustable levers with documentation.
• Rapid refresh & presentation ready format. When the board asks, you answer—immediately.

How Pegasus Bridges the Gap

Pegasus isn’t about promising futuristic models, but delivering forecasting you can defend in the room:

• Transparent forecasting engines that let you see every assumption.
• Live scenario planning that responds in real time as questions arise.
• Dashboards built for presentation, not just internal review.
• No weeklong report builds, no “I’ll send you the numbers” after the meeting.

Conclusion

Excel has held on because, imperfect as it is, it’s the tool that CFOs have trusted to protect their credibility. SaaS platforms have tried to replace it—but until they can offer transparency, control, and real-time reliability, they’ll remain secondary.

Commanding the boardroom doesn’t mean choosing between SaaS and Excel—it means choosing a future where you get the speed and integration of SaaS with the visibility and defensibility of good old spreadsheets. That’s where real confidence lives.

Want to see how Pegasus can help you build transparent forecasts?